What Makes This US Shutdown Different (and Harder to Resolve)?
Government closures have become a recurring feature in American political life – however the current situation appears especially difficult to resolve due to shifting political forces and deep-seated animosity between the two parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 people likely to be placed on furlough without pay since both political parties can't agree on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the deadlock have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path in this instance as both parties – including the President – can see some merit in digging in.
These are several key factors in which this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base have insisted for months for their representatives more forcefully fights the current presidency. Currently the party leadership has a chance to demonstrate their responsiveness.
In March, the Senate's top Democrat faced strong criticism after supporting a Republican spending bill and averting a shutdown early this year. This time he's holding firm.
This is a chance for Democrats to show they can take back some control from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively on its agenda.
Opposing the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk that the wider public may become impatient with prolonged negotiations and consequences begin to mount.
Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies together with GOP-backed government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
They are also trying to curtail the President's use of presidential authority to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated in international assistance and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President along with a senior aide have made little secret their perspective that they smell a chance to make more of the cutbacks in government employment implemented during the current presidential term to date.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the shutdown provided him with an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
The White House said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. The Press Secretary said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs is still uncertain, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, which is headed by the key official.
The budget director has already announced the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by the opposition party, such as NYC and Chicago.
3. There's little trust between both parties
Whereas past government closures have been characterised by late-night talks between the two parties in an effort to get government services running again, there appears to be little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Instead, animosity prevails. The bad blood persisted recently, as both sides blaming each other for causing the impasse.
House Speaker a Republican, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and maintaining positions over a deal "to get political cover".
Simultaneously, the opposition's chief levelled the same accusation at the other side, saying that a majority party commitment regarding health funding talks once the government reopens can not be taken seriously.
The President himself has inflamed the situation by posting a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader and the top Democrat in the House, where the representative is depicted with traditional headwear and a moustache.
The affected legislator and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect about 40% of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough due to the shutdown.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, delayed intellectual property processing, interrupted vendor payments along with various forms of federal operations connected to commercial interests cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability within economic systems already being roiled by changes ranging from tariffs, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and artificial intelligence.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of approximately 0.2% off US economic growth weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns after major environmental events.
That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed by the current stand-off.
On the other hand, analysts say that if administration officials implement proposed significant workforce reductions, economic harm might become more long-lasting.